In this paper we consider the probabilities of finite- and infinite-time absolute ruins in the renewal risk model with constant premium rate and constant force of interest. In the particular case of ...

It's looking more likely that we'll see a recession sometime in the next year, according to a model created by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed's recession probabilities model ...

Forecasting has a battered reputation in finance and economics, and for all the obvious reasons. But that doesn’t change the simple fact that you just can’t avoid prediction when it comes to macro and ...

We discuss the problem of selecting among alternative parametric models within the Bayesian framework. For model selection problems, which involve non-nested models, the common objective choice of a ...

This important study reports three experiments examining how the subjective experience of task regularities influences perceptual decision-making. Although the evidence linking subjective ratings to ...

A new severe weather model developed at Colorado State University correctly forecast the probability of hazardous storms seven days ahead of last week's killer tornadoes in Mississippi. This week, ...